Historical data cannot be ignored by investors because it provides perspective of what has happened and may help investors to make their next moves. though it often has limited impact on the next move.
The random walk theory states that prices are independent of other factors so their past movement cannot predict their future. The stumbling steps of a drunkard are impossible to forecast.
Chartists will argue otherwise putting significant value in technical analysis to predict market moves.
Just because a stock or commodity has gone up or down a certain amount of time does not guarantee either that continues or has to end.
A little historical price perspective is fun to analyze to possibly identify opportunities. Gravity can knock prices down and a bottom bounce can benefit from an approach to the worthless level.
2014 saw Oil was down 45% and Natural Gas minus 30%. The year end is near with no bounce back just more bleeding in the energy complex.
Commodities contracts can have dynamic big dollar price changes especially year to year. The leverage, typically 5-10 percent deposit of the contract cash value, presents a discipline challenge in the short term.
