Check out this 15-minute video on my long-term market projections for 2017 as well as a few stocks to invest in right now!
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Investing Shortcuts – 2017 Market Projections and Stocks to Watch from Investing Shortcuts on Vimeo.
Check Out the Transcript Below…
Hey traders, stock market fans, and investing enthusiasts from around the world, what’s going on?
It’s me, Jerremy Alexander Newsome, with Real Life Trading, and this is your Investing Shortcut—kind of a long cut, though, because I’m going to be talking for a little bit here about just simply my predictions for the 2017 year. These predictions are going to be based entirely on technical analysis, looking at the broader markets, more or less, and kind of showing you and sharing with you some previous analysis that I’ve done.
This is a pretty early analysis, being that it’s still 2016, so I definitely will do my absolute best here, but before I hop into it, let’s just talk a little bit about what I predicted a few months ago, based on the election and everything that was happening.
This is a website called Tradingview, it’s a free charting software—you’re welcome to actually find me and follow me on Tradingview if you wish, RealLifeTrading.com, it is a free site, and I do publish a lot of trading ideas.
So you’ll notice, this one right here, published eight months ago, this is the S&P 500 Futures projections and plans, and so I’ll be doing another one with you guys right now, but notice that this is published eight months ago, and I kind of drew two thoughts in here.
I wrote down that I was quite confident that we were going to be going higher from where we were, which was April 2016. And I was hoping that we would get the blue rollover, in the markets, that was kind of my biggest hope, but I wrote down what I actually think is going to happen, and what makes the most sense from a wave structure, is going to be red, 89% confident a Republican wins the presidency.
So here’s kind of the, right here, if you press play, it’ll actually load all the candles for you, and you’ll notice we did break out, and, so again, all these drawings, these are freehand drawings, and I drew in here that we probably have a high of about 2171.50, we made it up to about 2191.
I mentioned that we would retrace down to that old resistance, new support, drew a low of about 2108, and we had a low of about 2085, and then I mentioned that we would probably have a good rally, making new all-time highs, into the end of the year, and we have a little bit of a slow down, and then probably a continuation higher.
The reason I’m showing you this is not necessarily to gloat, but just to kind of bring back to full focus, why I’m coming up with what I’m coming up with now.
So here in the S&P, I’m going to put a line chart on, and we’ll zoom all the way out, so again, this is a weekly chart right here, and you’ll notice on the weekly chart, since we’ve broken out of these 1500.40 highs, if we ever do have a “giant market crash,” I don’t think it’s going to be happening in 2017.
If it would happen anytime soon, those are the two areas I’ll be looking to buy, 1877 and 1550. So if we ever do get a massive, massive pull back, that’s where I’ll be looking to buy. So we do have a really good support resistance around here at 2108, and I don’t know if you’re familiar or if you’ve ever heard of anything called Elliott Wave before, but I do have a really good Elliott Wave count on the S&P, which looks like this, this is a wave four, and this is going to be a wave five.
Now a wave five does end and after a wave five, you get what’s called an A, B, C correction, which is A, B, C. Now if you want to learn more about Elliott Wave, you can also hop over here to YouTube, and type in All You Need to Know About Elliott Wave, All You Need to Know, About Elliott Wave. And I believe, I’m the first, there you go, the first video that comes up about Elliott Wave, so you can feel free to check that one out.
But anyway, that’s kind of my thoughts into the early part of 2017, the first two quarters, I expect to be relatively bullish, quarter one, relatively weak, quarter two, very strong, quarter three, semi-strong, and probably some pullbacks into the end of quarter three, and then quarter four, and we’ll probably get a bounce at some point.
So that’s kind of like, the bigger projection, so now what I’m going do, is just hop in here to a daily chart, and kind of give you an overview, again, based on a line chart, so you’ll be able to see the beautiful, beautiful retest right here.
So looking on the S&P, probably coming into January, February, we’re going to trade sideways into here, and do one of two things, into mid-January, early February, as we’ll continue to pull back a little bit, and we’ll either bounce again, off of 2108, making that higher high, into April, May, potentially, of 2017, and, or, we trade sideways a little bit, and then bounce, and get up there a little bit quicker, like March, April and then get the big correction, so we wouldn’t pull back so far, which would be about 2181, and then trade up to a previous resistance, which would be that 2400 area, is going to be a really, really good resistance, and then we just kind of stay up here, and we consolidate into 2018.
Now the biggest, I’ll leave that on here for just a little bit, so the biggest correction that I see, that we could get between now and 2018, would be the S&P back at 1875, and that would be, in my opinion, a really good buying location, I think that would be a great place to kind of buy the dip, so just be very cautious going into 2017, and just cautious in regards to where you’re buying, because right now, we are into some all-time high territories.
And when you’re buying into all-time high territories, you’re not getting as good of a discount as you would’ve wanted or as you would like to get, so if you are looking to load up, these are really the areas that you’re looking to lock in gains coming into 2017, and of course, as we pull back, that’s where you would probably be adding to your positions, 401(k)s, IRAs, longer term portfolios, so this is the S&P 500, let’s go to the Dow Jones, and you heard it here first, the Dow Jones absolutely will break above 20,000, and that might even happen this year, being the end of 2016.
But this is something very interesting to keep in mind, I find this truly, truly insightful. Notice this volume here on the Dow Jones, this is the biggest bullish volume that we’ve gotten since the bottom of 2009, and that could be, actually something called exhaustion volume. If you want to learn a little bit more about exhaustion volume, exhaustion volume, let’s see if I come up in YouTube, there we go, number one video again, What is Exhaustion Volume?
So I really think that this is a kind of a semblance of what’s likely to come in the future, again very, very good breakout of this resistance, this was a beautiful distribution phase, and we’re entering a new public participation phase, we’re just rocking and rolling here in the markets.
So any kind of pull back is going to be buyable, I do think we have higher highs, there’s zero chance that we stop exactly at 20,000, so yeah, we will be going higher, not necessarily this week or anything, but, I’m saying it could happen before the end of the year, but that’s a little bit of a stretch, but it absolutely will be happening before March of 2017, and that’s when people are going to be really comfortable hopping on board, onto the markets, keep in mind, my personal opinion, this market will continue to sustain itself for a while.
When you need to start being really wary, and cautious of a bullish crash, or a bullish retracement, is when all of your friends and family and the news and everyone you’re talking to is bullish, when everyone you know is talking about buying, when you go to that holiday party, or you go to an event, and just everyone you see around you is talking about, hey man, did you buy this stock, did you get into this trade? That one guy from high school, that you didn’t really like that much, contacts you and starts talking about stocks with you, that’s when you know something’s up, right, when really all of the uninformed publics are hopping on.
But what I do want to make sure we’re fully aware of, is I don’t see anything on this chart, other than, really, kind of this volume, I don’t see anything on this chart that’s going to signify that we do this, alright. There’s a lot of economists that have been saying that, but that’s really something I call click-bait, which is a term in the marketing world, where you come up with an outrageous statement just to make people click on the article and read it. There’s very, very little chance that that happened, even with any presidency that we have, or don’t have, coming into to the end of the years, it’s just not going to happen. Not that quickly anyway.
And I agree, there is absolutely a debt bubble out there, and it will have to correct itself at some point, and, you know, theoretically, sure, that could, technically, happen, but based on how far we’ve already moved, I mean a 50% correction, which would be, I mean, absolutely massive. A 50% correction would only bring us back down to about 14,000, which would be, in my opinion, a great buying location.
The biggest correction, kind of like the S&P, that I could truly foresee, in the next two to three years, maybe back down to 15,000, now again, we could hang out here, and kind of ping and pong, something like this, but really, you know, the 10% correction would be very healthy in 2017, any small correction that we get into the next year, pull back would be a good buying opportunity, but I do think we’d go higher on all indices higher than we are right now, higher on the Dow, higher on the S&P, higher on the NASDAQ, higher on the Russell.
If you want a quick idea of how much higher we could go, I’m using something called Fibonacci Analysis here, and I’m going to do this wave, right, so that wave, you’ll notice we’ve already broken through, some very interesting extensions.
So looking at approximately 23,000 and some change, we get fine tuned a little bit, 22,610.65 could be easily a late 2017, early 2018 target, and again, you’ll really know if the market is going to be pulling back farther if we start getting some strong, strong bullish sentiment, everyone in the world is saying, this is the time to buy. But that could be as big as we get, you know, 2019, 2020, it could go from 23,000 to 15,000, so obviously, that’d be a big correction, about 30%, but that’s healthy.
We’ve got to keep in mind, the markets do correct, they have to correct, not all the time, but you do have corrections, nothing just goes straight up, so you’ve got to keep that in mind. But really, this is probably the most likely, anticipation and drawing that I can have for you right here, on the Dow Jones, if you were to take a screenshot of that, I think that’s probably worst case scenario, in my opinion.
I think if we really do have bearish market, that’s really almost exactly what it looks like, on the Dow Industrials, the Dow Jones, and, you know, again, that would be a rough end of the term for Trump, but a 30% correction in the market, at some point, is going to happen, it’s just a matter of when, it’s not a matter of if, it will happen.
So the question everyone is wondering, is when is it going to happen? So on and so forth. Based on the all the structural volume, wave counts, everything that I’m seeing, it’s still in the distant future. And that’s pretty much it, as far as the broader market.
If you’re looking at stocks, what strategies could you be considering, well, you know, buy low, sell high, look for value in this market, find a good stock, a good company that is a low level, you’ll find a lot of energies, they’re at some low levels, stocks that pay dividends, at one point, like Chesapeake Energy, you know, I think Chesapeake Energy could pull back a little bit more, but eventually, easily trade higher, FCX, Freeport-McMoRan, if it pulls back to that $13 region, at some point, that would be a really good, long-term buy low, sell high, right.
So look for stocks that are low, that have made some good moves, and they could have moves higher. Apple, believe it or not, is still kind of one of them, now Apple is not as low it was back at 90, but it has room to go, right, we are not at all-time highs on Apple, so the 132, 133 area, could be easily, easily a 2017 target on Apple.
Tesla, also a stock that’s gotten really beat up recently, it is at a low level, and it’s also forming what appears to be a very nice double bottom down here, at a really good support. So we have, I’m going to delete that, beautiful double bottom on Tesla at 181, next giant target would 280, which we could see in 2017, it has done it before, and it could do it again.
Obviously, silver and gold getting beat up really, really bad, mostly because the dollar is going higher, so the U.S. Dollar, I do anticipate, this is it right here, to absolutely continue screaming higher, and I’ll do the same wave count I gave you on the S&P here, on the dollar index, we’ve got a one, two, three, four, five, so the dollar, getting stronger compared to all other currencies, which is good for the U.S. residents.
And if you’re international, in the world, you know, that’s something to consider, the dollar, very, very likely, will continue getting stronger, and we’re going to be entering into a phase of the market where everything out there actually just seems unreasonably bullish, the dollar’s going to be going stronger, equities are going stronger, interest rates are still going to be low, and people are going to start getting into a euphoric, bullish panic, I’m thinking about two and a half years. So that’s why I thought maybe that 20%, 30% correction on the Dow.
But anyway, that’s the U.S. Dollar, so that’s going to continue getting stronger, and some targets up there at 111.69 on the dollar index, but likely will continue past that. But again, silver and the dollar, you will find some good buy low, sell high opportunities on silver for the long term level.
I love Bridge Petroleum as an energy company, a very nice, Blue Chip stock, that still pays dividends, still has a low level, I feel like, RIG also, another stock that has a little bit of a pullback opportunity, but it’s nice, cheap, at this point. Marathon Oil, same thing, here’s some MRO, so, bottom line, find stocks that pay dividends, that are at a low level.
You can look at the charts and easily see that it has moved higher in the past, buy low, sell high, going into the next two years, I still think we’re going to continue bullish into 2017, with some slight pullbacks and some buying opportunities.
Ladies and gentlemen, I hope this was helpful, thank you so much for watching, this is a kind of a little bit of a longer-term perspective, for any of my shorter-term traders, feel free to reach out to me, Jerremy@RealLifeTrading.com, if you have any questions, we can do anything at Real Life Trading, we specialize in anything from long term, short term, anything from weekly options that expire in days or hours, to trades that are in a core portfolio that are accumulating over three to five years.
So, thanks so much for watching, ladies and gentlemen, you absolutely rock, have a wonderful day, and until next time, love life, live life and trade it. Bye.
